Other Articles by Authors

Jongkers Tampubolon

Authors and WSEAS

Jongkers Tampubolon

WSEAS Transactions on Business and Economics

Print ISSN: 1109-9526
E-ISSN: 2224-2899

Volume 16, 2019

Notice: As of 2014 and for the forthcoming years, the publication frequency/periodicity of WSEAS Journals is adapted to the 'continuously updated' model. What this means is that instead of being separated into issues, new papers will be added on a continuous basis, allowing a more regular flow and shorter publication times. The papers will appear in reverse order, therefore the most recent one will be on top.

Volume 16, 2019

Indonesian Export Performance and Competitiveness in the Asean-China FTA

AUTHORS: Jongkers Tampubolon

Download as PDF

ABSTRACT: The ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA) is a regional trade agreement that attracts the most attention among various FTAs between ASEAN and third parties. This study aims to analyze the influence of ACFTA on export performance and the competitiveness of Indonesian exports. The study revealed that (i) ASEAN-China FTA increased the penetration of Indonesian export products in the Chinese market, marked by the increasing number of sectors in the category of rising stars and lagging opportunities from 19 sectors before ACFTA to 52 sectors after 2010, (ii) similarity trade index between ASEAN and China since 2011 decreased sharply from 43 to 14 in 2016 indicating the export profile between ASEAN and China is increasingly divergent (increasingly dissimilar), and (iii) high competition between Indonesian and China export consistently decreased measured in similarity trade index from 69 in 2011 to 58 in 2016. Consequently, Indonesia's export development potential is still open to ASEAN and China (specifically to the ASEAN market) because 38 sectors of export are in the lost opportunity category and almost half (42%) of these sectors posses competitiveness (RCA> 1)

KEYWORDS: Economic Integration; ASEAN-China FTA; Dynamic Revealed Comparative Advantage; Similarity Trade Index)


[1] Aslam, M., 2012: The Impact of ASEANChina Free Trade Area Agreement on ASEAN Manufacturing Industry. International Journal of China Studies, Vol. 3 (1): 43-78.

[2] Aslam, M., 2018: ASEAN-China FTA and the Impact on Indonesian Manufacturing Industry. JATI-Journal of Southeast Asian Sudies, Vol. 23 (1): 13-46.

[3] Athanasoglou, P.P., Backinezos, C. and Georgiou, E.A., 2010: Export performance,competitiveness and commodity composition. Bank of Greece Working Paper No.114.

[4] Baldwin, R.E., 2008: Managing the Noodle Bowl: the Fragility of East Asian Regionalism. The Singapore Economic Review, Vol. 53 (3): 449 – 478.

[5] Bernardino, N.Y., 2004: The ASEANChina Free Trade Area: Issues and Prospects. Asia Pacific Network on Food Sovereignity – regional workshop papers, Manila, 6-9 November 2004.

[6] Bretscher, L. and Steger, T.M., 2004: The Dynamic of Economic Integration: Theory and Policy. WIF – Institute of Economic Research Working Paper 04/32.

[7] Chia, S.Y., 2010: Regional Trade Policy Cooperation and Architecture in Esat Asia. ADBI Working Paper Series No. 191.

[8] Crawford, J-A. And Fieorentino, R.V., 2005: The Changing Landscape of Regional Trade Agreement. WTO Discussion Paper No. 8.

[9] DFAT-Australia (Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Australian Goverment), 2003: China's Industrial Rise- East Asia's Challenge (https://dfat.gov.au/aboutus/publications/trade-investment/chinasrise/Pages/china-s-industrial-rise-east-asias-challenge. aspx).

[10] Edwards, L. and Schoer, V., 2001: The Structure and Competitiveness of South African Trade. Trade and Industrial Policy Strategy (TRIPS) Annual Forum, Misty Hills, Muldersdrift, 10-12 September, 2001 (http://www.tips.org.za/files/The_Structure _and_Competitiveness_ of_South_ African_Trade.pdf).

[11] Hertel, T.W. & Winters, L.A. (2005). Poverty Impacts of WTO Agreement: Synthesis and Overview Hertel, T.W. & Winters, L.A. (eds): Poverty and the WTO – Impacts of the Doha Development Agenda. The World Bank and Palgrave McMillan. pp. 3-30.

[12] Ibrahim, Permata, M.I. and Wibowo, W.A., 2010: Dampak Pelaksanaan ACFTA Terhadap Perdagangan Internasional Indonesia (The Impact of ACFTA on Indonesia International Trade). Bulletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan (Juli 2010): 23-74.

[13] Kawai, M. and Wignaraja, G., 2014: Trade Policy and Growth in Asia. ADBI Working Papers Series No. 495.

[14] Kilavuz, F. and Topcu, B.A., 2012: Export and Economic Growth in the Case of Manufacturing Industry. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Vol. 2 (2): 201-215.

[15] Kleiman, D., 2013: Beyond Market Success? The Anatomy of ASEAN’s Preferential Trade Agreements. European University Institute Working Papers No. Law 2013/01 (http://cadmus.eui.eu/handle/1814/26015).

[16] Krugman P R, Obstfeld M and Melitz M J 2012International Economics: Theory and Policy9th edition (Boston etc.: Addison-Weley) pp 80-96.

[17] Nugraheni, R.D. and Widodo, T., 2018: The Impact of ASEAN’s FTAs with China, Japan, Korea and Australia-New Zealand: An Analysis in GTAP Framework. MPRA Paper No. 86693 (https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/86693/).

[18] Okabe, M., 2015: The Impact of ASEAN+1 FTAs on ASEAN’s Trade in Ing, L.Y. (ed.): East Asian Integration. ERIA Research Project Report 2014-6, Jakarta: Eria, pp. 27-66.

[19] Park, D., Park, I. and Estrada G.E.B., 2009: Prospect for ASEAN-China Free Tradee Area: A Qualitative and Quantitative Analysis. China & World Economy, Vol. 17 (4): 104-120.

[20] Pokrivcak, J., 2007: Economics and Political Economy of Regional Trade Agreements. TradeAG Working Paper 07/5.

[21] Reyes, J., Schiavo, S. and Fagiolo, G., 2008: Assessing the evolution of international economic integration using random walk betweenness centrality: The case of East Asia and Latin America. Advances in Complex Systems, Vol. 11 (5): 685-702.

[22] Salvatore D 2013International Economics 11th edition(Hoboken NJ: John Wiley & Sons) pp 109-127

[23] Shams, R., 2002: Why Do Countries Form Regions? The Political Economy of Regional Integration. HWWA Discussion Paper No. 169. Hamburg Institute of International Economics.

[24] Sheng, Y., Tang, H.C. and Xu, X., 2012: The Impact of ACFTA on People’s Republic of China-ASEAN Trade: Estimates based on an Extended Gravity Model for Component Trade. ADB Working Paper Series on Regional Economic Integration, No. 99.

[25] Shujiro, V. and Misa, O., 2007: The Impact of Free Trade Agreements on Trade Flows: An Application of the Gravity Model Approach. RIETI Discussion Paper Series )7-E-052. The Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (http: www.rieti.go.jp/en/).

[26] Song, G. and Yuan, W.J., 2012: China’s Free Trade Agreement Strategies. The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 35 (4): 107-119.

[27] Taguchi, H. and Lee, H-L., 2016: ASEAN-plus-one Free Trade Agreement and their Trade Effects.

[28] The ASEAN Secretariat, 2004: Agreement on Trade in Goods of the Framework Agreement on Comprehensive Economic Co-Operation between The Association of Southeast Asian Nations andThe People’s Republic of China. The ASEAN Secretariat Public Affairs Office, Jakarta.

[29] The ASEAN Secretariat, 2008: ASEAN Economic Community Blue Print. The ASEAN Secretariat Public Affairs Office, Jakarta.

[30] Thewissen, S. and van Vliet, O., 2017: Competing with the Dragon: Employment Effects of Chinese Trade Competition in 17 Sectors across 18 OECD Countries. Political Science Research and Methods (https://doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2017.35).

[31] Utkulu, U. and Seymen, D., 2004: Revealed Comparative Advantage and Competitiveness: Evidence for Turkey visà-vis the EU/15. The 6th Annual Conference,ETSG 2004, Nottingham, September 2004 (https://www.deu.edu.tr/userweb/utku.utku lu/dosyalar/RCA.pdf).

[32] World Bank, 2012: Export Competitiveness in Indonesia’s Manufacturing Sector. Policy Note 2, The World Bank Office Jakarta.

[33] Yihong, T. and Weiwei, W., 2006: An Analysis of Trade Potential between China and ASEAN within China-ASEAN FTA..

WSEAS Transactions on Business and Economics, ISSN / E-ISSN: 1109-9526 / 2224-2899, Volume 16, 2019, Art. #14, pp. 120-129

Copyright Β© 2018 Author(s) retain the copyright of this article. This article is published under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0