Plenary Lecture
Electric Load Forecasting
Professor Stylianos Pappas
School of Pedagogical & Technological Education, ASPETE
Marousi, Athens, Greece
E-mail: spappas@aegean.gr
Abstract: Electrical energy is considered as one of the most important factors that are closely related to both economic and social development. Load forecasting is related to a number of operational functions, such as system safety, power system real-time control, economic planning, grid’s maintenance and also fuel planning. Prediction of the electric load demand, (either long term or short term), is affected by a number of factors such as the existing installed capacity, the annual average ambient temperature and humidity, the annual electric energy consumption per capita, the energy consumption per person and the gross domestic product (GDP), geographical location, customer profile in service area and random disturbances have to be considered. Accurate load forecasting is of great importance, since just a small fraction reduction in the prediction error leads to considerable savings in operating and maintenance costs, increases the reliability of the power generation and delivery system and finally helps the administrator to take the appropriate decisions for future development. On the other hand, load forecasting overestimation leads to unnecessary increase in the reserve and of course the operating costs. Finally if the load forecasting is underestimated it causes the collapse of the power system network due to the inability of providing stability as well as an adequate spinning and standby reserve to the system. Successful predicting techniques make use of ARMA, ARIMA or SARIMA models, and other implement evolutionary methods such as ANN’s, SVM’s, Grey Theory and Genetic Algorithm. Finally there are also hybrid strategies that combined two or more methods for the best possible prediction outcome.
Brief Biography of the Speaker: Stylianos Pappas graduated in 1998 from the University of Manchester Institute of Science and Technology (UMIST) with a Bachelor (Hons) of Engineering in Electrical Engineering and Electronics and a Master of Science in Advanced Control. He obtained his PhD in the area of Optimization from the Department of Information and Communication Systems Engineering of the University of the Aegean in 2008. Since 2003 has been working as a Visiting Lecturer giving lectures in subjects related to Electrical Engineering at various Universities such as in Hellenic Army Academy, Military Navy, Technological Institute of Chalkida and ASPETE-School of Pedagogical and Technological Education. He has participated in many national, FP7, and Horizon2020 research projects, as technical coordinator and senior researcher in the areas of operational stability, modelling and estimation (short and long term), optimal control, electrical energy systems, optimization and renewable sources energy systems. He is the author of more than 50 scientific articles and book chapters published in international journal and conferences while he has been given a series of Plenary Speeches. His research interests concern electric load estimation, transmission and distribution lines, energy storage systems, forecasting, stability analysis, reliability, renewable sources of energy and artificial neural networks. He is member of IEEE, IET, WSEAS and Technical Chamber of Greece.