Plenary Lecture
Second Order Decision Analysis
Professor Love Ekenberg
Department of Systems and Computer Science
Stockholm University
SWEDEN
E-mail: lovek@dsv.su.se
Abstract: I will discuss some aspects of risk analysis and decision making in practice. In such, the probabilities and utilities of consequences are often vague and imprecise. Furthermore, the support methods must allow for decision modelling with respect to different preferences and views, which further can be adjusted in an interactive fashion when considering calculated decision outcomes. There are several models for handling the natural impreciseseness in such situations, e.g., based on intervals probabilities or more elaborated approaches. I will discuss how second-order calculations add information, in a computational meaningful way, when handling imprecise representations, as is the case of decision trees or probabilistic networks. If time permits, I will also discuss some real life cases, when such methods significantly would have enhanced the analyses and why.
Brief Biography of the Speaker: Love Ekenberg is head of Department of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University. He has a PhD in Computer and Systems Sciences as well as a PhD in Mathematics from Stockholm University. He is currently professor in Computer and Systems Sciences at Stockholm University and visiting professor at KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm. He has been working with various aspects of risk and decision analysis for a number of years and is former adviser to the Swedish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Centre International de Déminage Humanitaire Genève, member of the Swedish advisory group to the UN ICT Task Force, WHO, World Bank and others. He has published well over 150 articles, books, etc, on formal methods, risk, decision analysis and eGovernment and has been member of numerous journal editorial boards and program committees.