AUTHORS: Ayman Agha, Audih Alfaoury

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ABSTRACT: System dynamics have been used for the planning of different sectors in the electric power industry. In the last decade, the number of new suppliers/ consumers entered into the electric power system is rapidly increasing; they are respectively the renewable energy and electric cars. This necessitates a mechanism to estimate the demand for electricity in the near future as per as to evaluate and forecast the situation in the power system. The amounts of generation, transmission, and distribution have been modelled in the form of regression equations depicting the system. The developed methodology is based on system dynamics and a new concept of trend index is introduced. The data of the Jordanian electric power system for the period (2001-2016) has been investigated and analyzed. The analyzed period is divided into two equal periods, the first (2001-2008); is to perform a comparative study of the status and the performance of the power system. However, the second period (2009-2016); is used to investigate the trends of the electrical power system. Numerical examples illustrating the effectiveness of the proposed method are presented. Discussion, conclusions and recommendations on the accuracy of the achieved results are also introduced.

KEYWORDS: Dynamic Analysis, Trend Index, Energy Losses Analysis, Electrical Losses in Jordanian Power System

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