AUTHORS: Luisa Stracqualursi, Patrizia Agati

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ABSTRACT: Planning and implementing strategies and programs to develop tourism has long been a priority issue for policy makers and decision makers. Hence, the interest in quantitative methods for assessing the extent to which possible modifications of some determinants can affect the tourism flows of the destination country. Besides, over the last decades, in Italy as well as in many other destinations worldwide, most of policy makers have shifted their priority from the promotion of inbound tourism to the promotion of domestic tourism. In this framework, the present study builds on a regional dataset and implements a beta regression model with a twofold aim: to investigate the relevance and the statistical significance of some determinants of Italian domestic tourism, and the extent to which possible modifications in such determinants can affect the tourism flows across the Italian regions.Among the several factors, the model showed the number of accommodation facilities, the number of great shopping centres and the hospital density as statistically significant, showing a good explained variation and a reasonable root mean square error. On this basis, simulation studies were performed to assess the impact of new investments, such as new accommodation facilities and new congress centres on local tourism flows.

KEYWORDS: Domestic tourism, Beta model, Tourism flow, Italian regions

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