Login



Other Articles by Authors

David Šaur



Authors and WSEAS

David Šaur


WSEAS Transactions on Environment and Development


Print ISSN: 1790-5079
E-ISSN: 2224-3496

Volume 14, 2018

Notice: As of 2014 and for the forthcoming years, the publication frequency/periodicity of WSEAS Journals is adapted to the 'continuously updated' model. What this means is that instead of being separated into issues, new papers will be added on a continuous basis, allowing a more regular flow and shorter publication times. The papers will appear in reverse order, therefore the most recent one will be on top.


Volume 14, 2018



Success Rate Evaluation of Severe Storm Phenomena and Flash Floods Forecasting

AUTHORS: David Šaur

Download as PDF

ABSTRACT: This article focuses on proposal new methods to predict strong convective storms that can cause flash floods. Flash flood is determined by the interaction of a number of factors such as the very intense convective precipitation (torrential rainfall accompanied by hail and strong wind gusts), slow motion of convective storms and the soil saturation. These factors have been included in the Algorithm of Storm Prediction, whose prediction results are presented in the two outcome of this article. The result section contains an assessment of the success rate of predictions of convective precipitation and storm intensity, which is complemented by the evaluation of the prediction success rate of severe storm phenomena. Primarily, the goal of the algorithm is to provide predictive information about risk of flash floods that comprise all the above mentioned outputs. Secondarily, the orieintally overview of other forecast outputs is part of the second result section.

KEYWORDS: Weather forecasting; convective storm; torrential rainfall; hailstorm; strong wind gusts; flash floods; meteorological radars; crisis management; NWP models

REFERENCES:

[1] ZDENEK, S., DUSAN, V., JAN, S., IVAN, M., MIROSLAV, M. Protection from flash floods (2015) Proceedings of the 26th International Business Information Management Association Conference - Innovation Management and Sustainable Economic Competitive Advantage: From Regional Development to Global Growth, IBIMA 2015, pp. 1359-1363. https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid =2-s2.0- 84976391745&partnerID=40&md5=923aa2f3 09578593d8b5e2cc503d02de

[2] OBRUSNÍK, I. (2006): Rizikové situace způsobené počasím, http://iris.env.cz/ris/ekodisknew.nsf/e75c7074f3a42826c1256b0100778c9a /4ab2c3258d4743aac12576410026f2b0/ /MZ%202006_6.pdf

[3] ŠAUR, D. Informační podpora krizového řízení kraje z hlediska hodnocení výskytu povodní. Zlín: Academia Centrum UTB ve Zlíně, 2017. 172s. ISBN 978-80-7454-712-6. Disertační práce. Univerzita Tomáše Bati ve Zlíně. Fakulta aplikované informatiky, Ústav řízení procesů.

[4] GARCÍA-ESPARZA J. A., ALACANIZ E. To Rehabilitate the Habitability. Scenario Simulation for Consolidated Urban Areas in Warm Regions. WSEAS Transactions on Environment and Development, ISSN / EISSN: 1790-5079 / 2224-3496, Volume 13, 2017, Art. #30, pp. 291-303

[5] LU, J., VECCHI, G. A., REICHLER, T (2007): Expansion of the Hadley cell under global warming. Geophysical Research Letters. 34 (6). DOI:10.1029/2006GL028443.

[6] ŠILHÁNKOVÁ V., PONDĚLÍČEK M. Agenda 2030 and Settlement Adaptation to Climate Change Impacts. WSEAS Transactions on Environment and Development, ISSN / EISSN: 1790-5079 / 2224-3496, Volume 13, 2017, Art. #20, pp. 181-188.

[7] YU, W., NAKAKITA, E., KIM, S., YAMAGUCHI, K. Improvement of rainfall and flood forecasts by blending ensemble NWP rainfall with radar prediction considering orographic rainfall (2015), Journal of Hydrology, 531, pp. 494-507. DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.04.055

[8] ZHANG, X., ANAGNOUSTOU, E.N., FREDIANI, M., SOLOMOS, S., KALLOS, G. Using NWP simulations in satellite rainfall estimation of heavy precipitation events over mountainous areas (2013), Journal of Hydrometeorology, 14 (6), pp. 1844-1858. Cited 6 times. DOI: 10.1175/JHM-D-12- 0174.1

[9] VINCENDON, B., DUCROCQ, V., NUISSIER, O., VIÉ, B. Perturbation of convection-permitting NWP forecasts for flash-flood ensemble forecasting (2011) Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11 (5), pp. 1529-1544. DOI: 10.5194/nhess-11- 1529-2011

[10]SIMONIN, D., PIERCE C., ROBERTS N., et al. Performance of Met Office hourly cycling NWP-based nowcasting for precipitation forecasts. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

[online]. 2017, 143(708), 2862-2873. DOI: 10.1002/qj.3136. ISSN 00359009. http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/qj.3136

[11]DAS, S., Rohit CHAKRABORTY A., MAITRA. A random forest algorithm for nowcasting of intense precipitation events. Advances in Space Research

[online]. 2017, 60(6), 1271-1282. DOI: 10.1016/j.asr.2017.03.026. ISSN 02731177. Dostupné z: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S02 73117717302144

[12]CASERI, A., JAVELLE, P., RAMOS, M.H., LEBLOIS, E. Generating precipitation ensembles for flood alert and risk management (2016), Journal of Flood Risk Management, 9 (4), pp. 402-415. DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.12203

[13]BAKER, L. H., A. C. RUDD, S. MIGLIORINI, et al. Representation of model error in a convective-scale ensemble prediction system. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics

[online]. 2014, 21(1), 19-39

[cit. 2018-03-20]. DOI: 10.5194/npg-21-19-2014. ISSN 1607-7946. Dostupné z: http://www.nonlin-processesgeophys.net/21/19/2014/

[14]L. NISI, AMBROSETI P., Clementi L. Nowcasting severe convection in the Alpine region: the COALITION approach.Quarterly” Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

[online]. 2014, vol. 140, issue 682, s. 1684-1699 DOI: 10.1002/qj.2249.

[15]LAKSHMANAN, V., CROCKETT, J., SPEROW, K., BA, M., XIN, L. Tuning AutoNowcaster automatically (2012) Weather and Forecasting, 27 (6), pp. 1568-1579. Cited 4 times. DOI: 10.1175/WAF-D-11-00141.1

[16]ŠAUR, D. Algoritmus předpovědi bouří: Technická specifikace. Univerzita Tomáše Bati ve Zlíně, Fakulta aplikované informatiky, CEBIA-Tech, 2018.

[17]ŠAUR, D. Metodika využití meteorologického radaru Zlínského kraje pro potřeby krizového řízení. Zlín, Zlínský kraj, 2016.

[18]SIVS - kód V. Bouřkové jevy: Český hydrometeorologický ústav. 1997 - 2018. Avalaible at: http://portal.chmi.cz/files/portal/docs/meteo/o m/vystrahy/napoveda/bourky.html

[19]Meteorologický slovník výkladový a terminologický (eMS). 1993 -2017. Avalaible at: http://slovnik.cmes.cz

[20]JSRadView – radar data browser CHMI, 2010 - 2018 Avalaible at: http://portal.chmi.cz/files/portal/docs/meteo/ra d/data_jsradview.h

WSEAS Transactions on Environment and Development, ISSN / E-ISSN: 1790-5079 / 2224-3496, Volume 14, 2018, Art. #60, pp. 548-560


Copyright © 2018 Author(s) retain the copyright of this article. This article is published under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0

Bulletin Board

Currently:

The editorial board is accepting papers.


WSEAS Main Site