AUTHORS: Julián Mora Aliseda, Consuelo Mora, Jacinto Garrido Velarde

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ABSTRACT: The behavior of the population is a basic datum to be taken into account in any of the studies to be considered and in any of the possible scenarios that may be represented from a future perspective. Therefore, when evaluating the present to act in the future, it is necessary to have enough information about the population, both to observe the behavior and real satisfaction of the social demand and to design an adequate economic and social policy that responds to the basic needs of the population that occupies and consumes the space. This is an investigation of quantitative type, in its methodological approach, through the use of census data of population considering the period 2001-2011. In the study of the municipalities located in the basin Guadiana population size categories apply. Also, the structure of the current population is examined and a predictive model of the evolution of the population in order of being able to rationally anticipate future trends in the populations analyzed were performed.

KEYWORDS: Rurality index, Socio-Spatial dynamics, Predictive models, Population analyse; River Guadiana; Population system

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