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Plenary Lecture
Decision Precising Technologies in Decision Making Systems

Professor Gia Sirbiladze
Department of Computer Science
Faculty of Exact & Natural Sciences
Iv. Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University
Georgia
E-mail: gia.sirbiladze@tsu.ge
Abstract:
To ensure the effectiveness of decision-support computer systems it is
essential to solve such problems as identification, filtration, precision
etc. of information streams, as well as modeling and simulation of
decision-making problems which are based on them. When working with
information streams of expert knowledge, as a complex systems, in parallel
with classical approaches of their modeling, the most important matter is to
assume fuzziness. All these is connected to the complicity of study of
incomplete, abnormal and extreme processes in nature and society, which are
caused by lack or shortage of objective information and when expert data
streams are essential for constructing credible decisions. Such problems
include solutions of business problems in extreme environments, analysis of
management and investment risks, problems of conflictology, sociology,
medical diagnosis, etc. With the growth of complexity of information our
ability to make credible decision about process development reduces to some
level, below which some characteristics such as accuracy and certainty
become mutually conflicting. Our research is concerned with
quantitative-fundamental analysis of this uncertainty and its use for
precision of informational processes and decision modeling. Consequently one
of main objects of our attention is the analysis of structures of expert
data and measures of its uncertainty. The most important of such analysis
methods are the theory of the body of evidence.
The precision of decisions first of all means improvement of representation
of decision making factors by Dempster-Shafer data structures. Of course,
there are many methods for knowledge representations and decision making,
which use the Dempster-Shafer structures. The novelty of our research in
this direction is the technology for precision of the structure of body of
evidence, which we call the temporalization of body of evidence.
Temporalization means the construction of inclusion relation on the bodies
of evidence. This approach is completely novel in study of expert knowledge
representations and structuring. It will cause many heurstic methods of
decision- making based on the expert knowledge representation to be
modified. All above listed means the following: 1. representation of data
which is an input of considered methods using Dempster-Shafer structures, so
called pessimistic-optimistic representations. This will better exhibit the
knowledge and intellectual activities of an expert. 2. the possibilities of
representing of expert information streams in triangular or trapezioform
fuzzy numbers will be considered. 3. the cases where focal elements in
Dempster-Shafer structure are represented by fuzzy sets, and focal
probabilities are represented by triangular or trapezioform fuzzy numbers
will be considered separately, 4. in methods’ decision-making criteria
represented in knowledge base of decision support technologies of inaccuracy
and uncertainty aggregations will be used such as: Choquet integral, Sugeno
integral, Dempster upper and lower expected values, positive and negative
discriminations, OWA operators, etc. 5. in selected methods these
aggregations will give us new criteria supporting more precise decision.
Thus existing heuristic methods will obtain fundamental basis, final purpose
of which will be to model more precise decision in the cases of expert
knowledge streams input. 6. The decision support system will obtain higher
credibility, which can be measured in new modified methods using the
informational measures, such as confusion and chaos constructed on more
precise decisions, inaccuracy and non-specificity measures etc.
Finally the process of precising decisions will be demonstrated based on
Discrimination method which is one of the popular methods of decision making
using fuzzy set theory.
Brief Biography of the Speaker:
Dr. Gia Sirbiladze is a full professor at the Department of Computer
Science of Faculty of Exact & Natural Sciences of Iv. Javakhishvili Tbilisi
State University, Georgia. He received his Ph.D. degree in 1991 from the
Computational Mathematics Institute of the Georgian Academy of Science. He
received his D. Sci. degree from the same institute in 2005. His scientific
interests include areas such as Intelligent Fuzzy Technologies and General
Systems, Fuzzy Technologies in Decision-making Support Systems, Fuzzy
Extremal Dynamic Systems - Control, Filtration and Identification, Fuzzy
Discrete Optimization Problems and Modeling Decisions. Dr. Gia Sirbiladze
has published 54 scientific papers on the above-listed topics. He is an
author of one monograph on Decision Making Problems in General Environment.
Dr.Gia Sirbiladze has participated in many scientific conferences, including
plenary speeches on WSEAS conferences. Dr.Gia Sirbiladze is a member of the
National Union of Mathematicians in Georgia. He serves as a reviewer for
Mathematical Reviews. He has reviewed papers for more then 15 international
and local journals and conferences. He serves as Information Technology
expert for Georgian National Scientific Fund. Dr.Gia Sirbiladze has
participated in several national and international research projects.
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