Plenary Lecture
World Energy and Future
Professor M. Kostic
Department of Mechanical Engineering
Northern Illinois University
DeKalb, IL 60115-2854,
USA
Phone: (815) 753-9975 or 753-9979
Fax (815)753-0416
E-mail: kostic@niu.edu
Web site:
http://www.kostic.niu.edu
Abstract: The two things are certain in not distant
future: (1) the world population and their living-standard expectations will
substantially increase, and (2) fossil fuels’ economical reserves,
particularly oil and natural gas, will substantially decrease. The
difficulties that will face every nation and the world in meeting energy
needs over the next several decades will be more challenging than what we
anticipate now. The traditional solutions and approaches will not solve the
global energy problem. New knowledge, new technology, and new living habits
and expectations must be developed to address both the quantity of energy
needed to increase the standard of living world-wide and to preserve and
enhance the quality of our environment. However, regardless of imminent
shortages of fossil fuels the outlook for future energy needs is
encouraging. There are many diverse and abundant energy sources with
promising future potentials, so that mankind should be able to enhance its
activities, standard and quality of living, by diversifying energy sources,
and by improving energy conversion and utilization efficiencies, while at
the same time increasing safety and reducing environmental pollution.
At present, most of the World energy consumption is supplied by the fossil
fuels (about 85%). However, the proven fossil fuel reserves are limited, and
if continued to be used at the present rates, it is estimated that the coal
(as used under current conditions) will be depleted in about 250 years, oil
in 60, and natural gas in about 80 years. We have to keep in perspective
that ‘proven reserves’ refers to the customary and economical ‘mining’ and
utilization of fuels, but new reserves and more efficient technologies are
being discovered, and make new fuel reserves economical. At present, a
substantial amount of World electricity is obtained from nuclear and hydro
energy, about 17% and 18%, respectively, and use of other renewable energy
resources is increasing, namely geothermal, wind, biomass and solar, as well
as development of alternative synthetic fuels, including hydrogen, etc. It
is worth noting that some countries produce almost all or most of their
electricity from hydro energy (like Norway, Brazil, New Zealand, Austria and
Switzerland), and France produces most of its electricity from nuclear fuel
(76%). The nuclear fuel reserves are orders of magnitude higher than fossil
fuels, and nuclear plants do not contribute to CO2 green-house pollution.
A probable scenario … in the wake of a short history of fossil fuels’
abundance and use (a bleep on a human history radar screen), the following
energy future activities, in order of practical urgency but all (diversity)
are critically important:
Creative adaptation and innovations, with change of societal and
human habits and expectations (life could be happier after fossil fuels’
era).
Intelligent hi-tech, local and global energy management in wide
sense (to reduce waste, improve efficiency and quality of environment and
life).
Energy conservation and regeneration have unforeseen (higher
order of magnitude) and large potentials, in industry, transportation,
commercial and residential sectors.
Nuclear energy and re-electrification for most of stationary
energy needs.
Cogeneration and integration of power generation and new industry
on global scale
(to close the cycles at sources thus protecting environment and increasing
efficiency).
Renewable biomass and synthetic hydro-carbons for fossil fuel
replacement (mobile energy, transportation, and chemicals).
Advanced energy storage (synthetic fuels, advanced batteries,
hydrogen…).
Redistributed solar-related and other renewable energies (to fill
in the gap…).
Furthermore, advances in energy conversion and utilization technologies and
increase in efficiency, including computerized control and management,
contribute to energy conservation, increase in safety, and reduction of
related environmental pollution. Actually, per capita energy use in the U.S.
and other developed countries is being reduced in recent years. However, the
increase of World’s population and development of many underdeveloped and
very populated countries, like China, India and others, will influence
continuous increase of the World energy consumption.
Brief Biography of the Speaker:
Professor Kostic's teaching and research interests are in Thermodynamics
(a science of energy, the Mother of All Sciences), Fluid Mechanics, Heat
Transfer and related fluid-thermal-energy sciences; with emphases on
physical comprehension and creative design, experimental methods with
computerized data acquisition, and CFD simulation; including nanotechnology
and development of new-hybrid, POLY-nanofluids with enhanced properties, as
well as design, analysis and optimization of fluids-thermal-energy
components and systems in power-conversion, utilizations, manufacturing and
material processing. Dr. Kostic came to Northern Illinois University from
the University of Illinois at Chicago, where he supervised and conducted a
two-year research program in heat transfer and viscoelastic fluid flows,
after working for some time in industry.
"Kostic’s unique synergy of philosophical, theoretical,
computational and experimental approach, results in open mind, intense
curiosity and sharp focus for identifying and analyzing natural and
engineering phenomena with high motivation for problem identification,
troubleshooting and solving."
Kostic received his B.S.
degree with the University of Belgrade
Award as the best graduated student in 1975. Then he worked as a researcher
in thermal engineering and combustion at
The Vinca Institute for Nuclear Sciences, which then hosted the
headquarters of the International Center for
Heat and Mass Transfer, and later taught at the University of Belgrade
in ex-Yugoslavia (*). He came to the
University of Illinois at Chicago in 1981
as a Fulbright grantee, where he received his Ph.D. in mechanical
engineering in 1984. Subsequently, Dr. Kostic worked several years in
industry. In addition, he spent
three summers as an exchange visitor in England, West Germany, and the
former Soviet Union.
Dr. Kostic has received
recognized professional fellowships and awards, including multiple citations
in Marquis' "Who's Who in
the World" and "Who's Who in Science and Engineering."; the
Fulbright Grant;
NASA Faculty Fellowship;
Sabbatical Semester at Fermilab as a
Guest Scientist; and the
summer Faculty Research
Participation Program at Argonne National
Laboratory. He is a frequent reviewer of professional works and books in
Thermodynamics and Experimental Methods. Dr. Kostic is a licensed
professional engineer (PE) in
Illinois and a member of the ASME,
ASEE, and
AIP's Society of
Rheology. He has a number of
publications in
refereed journals, including invited state-of-the-art chapters in the
Academic Press series
Advances in Heat
Transfer, Volume 19, and "Viscosity"
in CRC
Press'
Measurement, Instrumentation and Sensors Handbook; as well as invited
reference articles:
Work, Power, and Energy in
Academic
Press/Elsevier's Encyclopedia of Energy;
Extrusion Die Design in Dekker's Encyclopedia
of Chemical Processing; and
Energy: Global and Historical Background and
Physics of
Energy in Taylor & Francis/CRC Press
Encyclopedia of Energy Engineering and Technology. Professor Kostic is a
member of the Graduate Faculty at Northern
Illinois University.
