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Plenary Lecture
Emerging Research Directions for Modeling
the Impact, Short Time Recuperation and Long Term Recovery in the Case of
Natural Hazards
Professor Mircea Boscoianu
Military Technical Academy of Bucharest,
ROMANIA
Email: zwi@p.lodz.pl
Abstract: The economic impacts of natural hazards as very low
frequency but high impact events are difficult to model in a general
approach (because hazards strike are unique in the way they impact a
different place; damages are difficult to quantified especially in poor
areas; the largest economic impact is on stock variables, capital and labor,
while economic indicators measure flows).
Previous work in modeling strategies (Dacy and Kunreuther, The Economics of
Natural Disasters, 1969; Sorkin, 1982; Albala-Bertrand, 1993; Kunreuther,
1978; Kunreuther, 1996; Kunreuther, Roth, 1998) are based on classical
frameworks, but little has been dealt with a general theory on economics of
natural hazards. Some authors proposed an analysis based on similarities
with business cycles, risk aversion and insurance. In his review, Skoufias
(2003) addresses some problems related to the analogies of the economic
impact of natural disasters, with economic crises: the return to the
previous growth path and long term consequences, the problems which arise
after the natural disaster in medium term, the psychological impacts of a
natural hazard). Other recent studies in the field of economic analysis of
natural hazards (Cochrane, 2004; Cole, 2004, Okuyama, 2004) are more focused
on modeling spatial economic impacts of disasters in a regional context.
The lack of robust theoretical development/ analyses of natural hazards
impact to economy is due to the fact that natural hazards are quite
different from other economic events, in terms of its frequency, extent and
global impact, predictability. These aspects pose totally different set of
impacts to economy and require a special treatment of economic behavior
changes under the chaotic situation after a hazard.
The presentation is organized as follows:
- a review and a comparative analysis of the theoretical aspects in
the field of natural hazards
- aspects and models for the short-term recuperation; the limits of
the decision-making theory and laws of demand and supply from
microeconomic theory
- an analysis of the models capable to estimate the impacts of
long-term recovery; the efficiency of different growth models and
valuing the macroeconomic risk
- future research directions in the field of economics of natural
hazards: new perspectives on the REH (rational expectations hypothesis),
the use of statistical decision theory and the choice theory under
uncertainty (to explore the ramifications of model uncertainty and
learning in environments in which historical data may be insufficient to
yield acceptable probability statements), the role of uncertainty in the
exploration of hypothetical government/ public-private-partnership
interventions.
Brief Biography of the Speaker:
Mircea Boscoianu was born at 29.04.1966 in Suceava, Romania. He is
Romanian citizen, non married. He graduated the Faculty of Integrated
Systems of Armament, Aerospace Engineering in the Military Technical Academy
of Bucharest (1990) and the Faculty of Cybernetics in the Academy of
Economic Studies of Bucharest (1996). His first PhD was in Aerospace
Engineering (1993-1999) in Military Technical Academy and the second in
Cybernetics and Statistics (2000-2003) in the Academy of Economic Studies of
Bucharest.
His research and teaching activities (1990-2008, Military Technical Academy,
Dept of Integrated Aeronautical Systems and Mechanics) covered an extended
area of Aerospace Engineering, Cybernetics, Statistics and interdisciplynary
domains like mini and micro Unmamnned Aerial Vehicles, Risk Management,
Management of Extreme Risk Events, Soft Computing. He is author/ co-author
of more than 120 published papers and has contributed to more than 10 books
in these fields. Mircea Boscoianu has 5 participations in WSEAS Conferences
with 15 papers. He was the Head of Saphire-FAI Programme (2006-2008) and is
member of the Astronautical Commision of the Romanian Academy since 2005.
Mircea Boscoianu has an intersting experience in national projects/ programs
(5 projects in CNCSIS 2003, CEEX 2005, SECURITY 2005, PN2 2007 as general
manager and many projects as assistant manager and scientifical/ economical
manager) and he contributed as a member in one FP5 project and two FP7
proposals (FP7-SEC2007-3.3.01, FP7-SEC2007-4.3.01).
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