Plenary Lecture

Future changes in climate mean and extremes affecting agriculture in Europe

Professor M. Petrakis
Co-author: C. Giannakopoulos
Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development,
National Observatory of Athens, Athens
GREECE
mike@meteo.noa.gr

Abstract: Using daily output data from a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (GCM) HadCM3, we will identify changes in climate mean and extremes affecting agriculture in selected European regions, under a future climate change world. HadCM3 is a coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM, developed at the Hadley Centre, UK. The control run represents the base period 1961-1990 and will be used here as reference for comparison with future predictions. The future period will be the period 2031-2060. The atmospheric component of HadCM3 has 19 levels with a horizontal resolution of 2.5° of latitude by 3.75° of longitude, which produces a global grid of 96 x 73 grid cells.
The focus of this analysis will be to identify regions in Europe that are likely to undergo large amount of climate change and to examine extreme climate parameters (including temperature and precipitation), and the impacts of these extremes on agriculture.
More specifically, we will examine:
1) climatic changes in both mean (temperature, precipitation) and extremes (heatwaves, cold extremes) including:
- changes in average annual and seasonal temperatures
- changes in average annual and seasonal rainfall
- changes in the number of hot and extremely hot days
- changes in the number of warm nights
2) changes in climate affecting agriculture and crop yield in general, including:
- changes in the number of hot and extremely hot days
- changes in the number of warm nights
- changes in the number of frost days and nights
- changes in the number of dry and wet days per year
- changes in the precipitation amount and intensity
- changes in the length and duration of drought spells

Brief Biography of the Speaker:
Dr. Petrakis is the director of the Institute of Environmental Research and Sustainable Development of the National Observatory of Athens.

Graduate Studies:
Physics, University of Athens
Post Graduate Studies:
M.Sc. In Computer Science University of Manchester Institute of Science and Technology (UMIST).
Diploma Automatic Traffic Systems, Delft Technische Hochescule, (Delft University)
M.Sc in Automatic Control Systems University of Athens
Ph.D in Numerical Modelling , University of Athens

Courses And Research Activities:
Teledyne-Geotech (Dallas, Texas) Automatic Control Systems and Interfacing techniques.
Monitor-Labs (San Diego, California) Pollution Measurement Techniques and Instrumentation)
KFA (Julich W.Germany) Modelling of the Atmospheric Environment

Activities and Participation in Different Projects and Scientific Programs:
Director of the Institute of Environmental Research and Sustainable Development of EAA since 2001. Member of the Governing board of the National Observatory of Athens.Coordinator of the Greek team as from 1996-2000 in the European Topic Center Air for Air Quality (ETC/AQ) of the European Environmental Agency. Participation in the relevant teams for the creation and Development of the European Data Base for Air Pollution (AIRBASE) and the Evaluation of The Exchange of Information in EU Report for the EEA. Organization of the last two EIONET Workshops in Greece (1999) and Prague (2000).
Participation in many European and national projects concerning Environmental studies like most of the programs funded by the Greek Power Corporation for the study of the Pollution in the Megalopolis and Ptolemais from the Power Stations, the study of the St. George (Keratsini) Power Station, the Geothermic study of Nissyros , and different bilateral programs for the study of the Pollution problem in Athens and Salonica.
Coordinator of APOC study ‘Use of EO Data in Agriculture’ and participation as Greek representative in the Thematic Cooperation Group for Use of EO Data in Developing Countries.
Collaboration with different Universities Organizations and Research Institute such as:
EUROPEAN ENVIRONMENT AGENCY, UNEP, UNEP/MAP, BBRI, CONPHOEBUS, ENTPE/LASH, CIEMAT, TNO, LNETI, Un. Cambridge, Un. La Rochelle, RIVM, NILU, European Space Agency, Center for Earth Observation, etc.

Member of:
Greek Meteorological Society (ΕΜΤΕ) (President of the Governing Board)
National Observatory of Athens (Governing Board)
ECOCITY (NGO) President of the Governing Board
CACGP Commission on Atmospheric Chemistry and Global Pollution
IAMAS International Association of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences
European Geophysical Society
COST 618 ( National representative.)
Εuropean Wind Energy Association (EWEA) –
Hellenic Wind Energy Association -.
Union of Greek Researchers